UK hospitality sales post best growth of 2026 in September
Pubs rose 3.8% and restaurant groups 2.6%, their best month since November 2024, but like-for-like growth still trails inflation a week before the Autumn Budget.
UK hospitality sales rose 2.7% year on year in September at Britain's leading managed groups, the strongest like-for-like growth of 2026 so far, according to the NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker published on 22 October. August had managed 0.8%, and September was the fifth positive month in a row.
Pubs led the improvement. Their like-for-like sales climbed 3.8%, the category's second-best month of the year after July, when interest in the men's football World Cup lifted trade. Managed restaurant groups added 2.6%, their best result since November 2024 after a difficult first half. Bars stayed in negative territory at minus 1.7%, although NIQ and RSM noted it was their best comparison since the start of 2025.
Where UK hospitality sales grew fastest
The best month of 2026 still trails inflation; the Budget will decide whether it lasts.
Growth was spread unevenly across the map. Groups trading outside the M25 recorded a 2.8% rise, while venues inside London's orbital motorway grew 2.3%. Total sales, which include sites opened in the past 12 months, were 6.2% ahead of September 2025, a reminder that new openings continue to flatter the headline numbers.
The good month for UK hospitality sales has a ceiling. September's like-for-like figure sits just below the UK inflation rate, and according to NIQ the sector has not recorded real-terms growth since spring 2025. Revenue is rising, but not quite as fast as prices.
“September's trading figures provide hospitality with a much-needed shot of confidence,” said Karl Chessell, director of hospitality operators and food for EMEA at NIQ. He credited a warm start to autumn with unlocking extra spending, especially in restaurants, but warned that “intense pressure on key costs like taxes, ingredients, labour and energy” was making profitability even tougher.
A Budget that decides the festive season
Both organisations tie the outlook to the Autumn Budget on 28 October. Chessell described September as a possible springboard for Christmas and New Year, “but only if the Budget stimulates the confidence of businesses and consumers”. Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said the sector's “green shoots remain at the mercy of this month's budget”.
Moseley asked the government to reconsider its National Insurance contribution policies and the proposed pay harmonisation for under-21s, arguing that hospitality can help the nearly one million young people who are not in education, employment or training. The trade body UKHospitality has already set out its own demands, led by a call for a VAT cut on hospitality from 20% to 10%.
For operators the arithmetic is blunt: one strong month of UK hospitality sales does not pay for a year of higher wage and tax bills. The next tracker, covering October and published after the Budget, will show whether September was a turn or simply a warm spell.
