Arabica coffee prices sink to a three-month low
Brazil's record 2026/27 harvest has pushed arabica futures down to $2.78 a pound, a 22% monthly drop, as global coffee supply swings into surplus.
Arabica coffee prices have dropped to a three-month low, as Brazil's record 2026/27 harvest keeps flooding the global market with supply.
ICE Coffee C futures settled at $2.78 a pound on September 25, according to daily market data tracked by AZ Coffee Shops. That is down 22.2% over 30 days and well off the 52-week high of $4.23 a pound, reached last October after a frost-hit crop cut supply.
Why arabica coffee prices are falling
Rising stocks combined with good flowering in Brazil put overall pressure on arabica.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Brazil's 2026/27 crop at a record 71.9 million 60kg bags, a 14% jump on the previous season. Arabica output alone is expected to climb 25% to 47.5 million bags, the largest arabica harvest on record.
Brazil exported roughly 4.155 million bags of coffee in August, up 31% year on year, according to figures cited by the International Coffee Organization. September shipments through mid-month ran 51% ahead of last year's pace, Brazilian government data reported by Reuters show.
Certified arabica stocks held in ICE warehouses fell to a 27-year low of 217,932 bags on September 14, but traders have since scheduled more than 300,000 bags for delivery as the new crop clears customs and reaches port.
Rising stocks combined with good flowering in Brazil put overall pressure on arabica, a broker told Reuters, pointing to weeks of steady selling from farmers eager to lock in gains before more beans arrive.
The wider effect on coffee origins
The International Coffee Organization expects global output to reach a record 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, tipping the market into its first surplus in five years, close to 3 million bags. StoneX Specialty Coffee puts the 2026 surplus even higher, near 10 million bags, once Brazil's full crop is counted.
Not every origin is riding the same wave. Colombia's exports are running behind pace after an August earthquake disrupted growing areas in Choco, while a weaker peso is pushing some Central American and Ethiopian growers to sell faster than usual. Vietnam's robusta prices sank to a multi-month low of their own before this year's harvest arrived.
Roasters have room to plan ahead. Futures still sit above the 2024 lows, and the market's next real test comes in December, when rainfall during flowering will start to shape the size of Brazil's 2027/28 crop.
