California almond shipments jump as the crop tightens

California almond shipments jumped in August, the first hard numbers of a 2026 crop year that traders already expected to run tight.

The Almond Board of California's August position report showed total shipments of 190 million pounds. Exports accounted for 143.2 million pounds, up 31% on the same month last year; domestic shipments slipped 3.3% to 46.8 million pounds.

Receipts told a similar story. Handlers took in 401.9 million pounds in August, 55% ahead of August 2025, as harvest started roughly two weeks earlier than the prior season across most growing regions.

A smaller crop, moving faster than usual, into a market that hasn't slowed down to meet it.

A smaller carry-in tightens supply

Carry-in stock, the almonds left over from the previous crop, stood at 470.7 million pounds, of which only 447.1 million pounds is considered edible-grade. That figure is down on last year and confirms what growers had been bracing for since the spring: less cushion heading into a new season.

The USDA's own May forecast had already put the 2026 crop at 2.7 billion pounds, a 1% decline on the prior year, with yield holding flat at 1,940 pounds per acre. California's bearing acreage fell for the first time since 1995, as older orchards are pulled out faster than new ones are planted, a shift Almond Board president and chief executive Clarice Turner called a signal of tighter supply rather than a crisis. California, she said, “remains the world's leading almond supplier.”

India keeps buying

The 31% jump in August exports leaned heavily on demand from India, now one of the industry's most reliable growth markets, even as another harvest arrived early this year on the other side of the world. Growers and handlers are watching the split closely: a shrinking crop paired with strong export demand tends to support prices, but only if shipments keep pace with the tighter supply rather than stalling behind it.

None of this guarantees a smooth season. Kernel sizing and the final crop count both remain unsettled, and California almonds have surprised the market before, in both directions. What the August numbers confirm is direction, not certainty: a smaller crop, moving faster than usual, into a market that has not slowed down to meet it.