Cocoa crop forecasts fall across Ivory Coast and Ghana

The 2026/27 cocoa crop in Ivory Coast is being estimated at about 1.8 million tonnes as the main harvest opens this month, roughly 18% below the 2.2 million tonnes of the previous season.

Early surveys have found below-average cherelle formation on the trees, the small pods that determine how much fruit a season will carry. Cherelle counts taken now are the closest thing the trade has to a forecast, and this year they are pointing down.

Ghana's numbers are worse in percentage terms. COCOBOD, the country's regulator, has projected 2026/27 production of 450,000 to 550,000 tonnes, against 750,000 tonnes projected for 2025/26, citing swollen shoot disease, ageing farms and the likelihood of adverse weather from El Nino.

A surplus of 25,000 tonnes is a rounding error dressed up as a cushion.

What the cocoa crop numbers change

The balance for the year. StoneX cut its 2026/27 global surplus estimate to 25,000 tonnes on 29 July, from 149,000 tonnes forecast in April, citing El Nino risk to West Africa. A surplus of 25,000 tonnes against world consumption measured in millions of tonnes is a rounding error dressed as a cushion.

The counterweight is real. Growing conditions in West Africa were exceptional earlier in the summer, which is why prices fell then, and cocoa is still trading far below its 2024 peaks. A crop that starts badly in September can still be rescued by rain in October; the trade has watched it happen twice this decade.

Why the kitchen feels it late

Chocolate makers buy forward. A pastry section working through autumn is using beans contracted months ago, which is why menu prices move a season after the futures screen does. The 2024 spike is only reaching some dessert lists now, just as the market that caused it has already corrected.

What matters for 2027 is whether the Ivorian main crop, which runs from now to March, comes in near 1.8 million tonnes or below it. Everything after that is chocolate pricing. More on what the season brings in the produce section.