Andalucia olive oil forecast jumps 29% for 2026/27
Spain's farm ministry puts the region's new campaign at 1.26 million tonnes, recovering most of what a dry spell cost the previous harvest.
Andalucia's olive oil forecast for the 2026/27 campaign stands at 1,261,200 tonnes, a 29.3% rise on the final figure for the season that closed on 30 September.
Agriculture minister Luis Planas presented the first estimate in Jaen on 1 October. The figure comes from a forecast harvest of 6,849,200 tonnes of mill olives, which the ministry puts 44.1% above the average of the last five campaigns.
Planas was careful about the number's weight. "This first forecast responds to the campaign's weather conditions," he said, a reminder that the estimate can still move once picking gets under way in the coming weeks.
This first forecast responds to the campaign's weather conditions, not to oil already in the mill.
Jaen and Cordoba carry the region
Jaen alone is forecast to produce 575,000 tonnes, a 47.8% increase and equivalent to 36% of Spain's entire output. Cordoba follows with 339,700 tonnes, up 37.6%. Together the two provinces account for 72.5% of Andalucia's expected harvest.
Andalucia supplies 78.7% of Spain's olive oil, so its recovery carries weight beyond the region. National output for 2026/27 is projected at 1,602,596 tonnes, 23% above the previous campaign.
A rebound after a dry campaign
The increase follows a 2025/26 season that Andalucia closed down on its own five-year average, after rain-fed groves went into autumn short of water. Italy's own harvest rose 31% this year on similar terms, pointing to a wider recovery across southern Europe's olive belt after two volatile seasons.
Spain's forecast still carries a caveat the ministry repeats every October: this is an aforo, a first estimate based on tree conditions, not a count of oil already pressed. Millers will not know the real volume until the campaign closes next summer.
Prices, which spiked when the 2022 and 2023 harvests fell short, have already eased on the expectation of more oil reaching the market. Whether they keep falling depends on how much of this forecast survives the next two months of weather. Growers in Jaen say the olives are sizing well so far, but October rain, not the ministry's spreadsheet, will settle the final number.
