US turkey prices hit a record high before Thanksgiving
USDA data show wholesale turkey at 175.5 cents a pound, up 29% on 2025, while egg prices fall 72% as poultry flocks recover unevenly from last year's bird flu losses.
US wholesale turkey prices are on course for their highest annual average on record in 2026, with Thanksgiving three weeks away and the national flock still rebuilding from last year's bird flu losses.
The US Department of Agriculture's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its full-year forecast for frozen whole hens to 175.5 cents a pound, up from 174.6 cents projected a month earlier and about 29% above the 135.8-cent average recorded across 2025.
The fourth quarter, when most retail birds are bought and sold, is forecast at 175.0 cents a pound, against 172.2 cents in the same quarter last year. The summer peak was sharper still: USDA logged a third-quarter average of 180.7 cents, the highest quarterly figure in this year's series, before prices eased slightly into autumn.
Turkey went up, eggs came down, and Thanksgiving's math changed everywhere but the register.
USDA has not forecast retail shelf prices, which grocers set independently and often discount around the holiday to draw shoppers in. It is a familiar pattern for US kitchens this year: restaurant beef prices have climbed 9.4% since last year, squeezing menus well before the turkey math arrived.
A flock still rebuilding from bird flu
The run-up traces back to February, when USDA trimmed its 2026 turkey production forecast, citing flock reductions tied to ongoing outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza on commercial farms across several states.
By August, fresher hatchery and processing data let USDA raise its production estimate for the year to 5,100 million pounds, up from 5,056 million projected a month earlier. The turkey price forecast rose in step, to 170.3 cents a pound for the remainder of 2026, as the recovering flock still lagged the demand built up since 2025's losses.
Eggs move the opposite way
Eggs, hit hardest by avian flu culls in 2025, are this year's relief item on the Thanksgiving table. USDA's October forecast puts the 2026 annual average at 103.5 cents a dozen, down from a 373.7-cent average in 2025, a drop of roughly 72% as laying flocks recovered faster than turkey operations did.
The department's Economic Research Service projected in September that egg prices would fall 29.4% across 2026 while poultry prices overall rose about 1%, holding its food-at-home inflation estimate at 2.4% for the year. A pumpkin pie, built on eggs more than turkey, is the one course on the table getting cheaper to bake.
USDA's own numbers point to relief ahead for turkey growers and shoppers alike: its early forecast for 2027 puts the annual average back down to 145 cents a pound, 30 cents below this year's level, assuming the flock keeps rebuilding without another HPAI season to interrupt it.
