Greece's olive oil crop rebounds as prices sink below cost
Growers are heading for their biggest harvest in four years, but mill-gate prices in Crete have slipped under €4 a kilo, and some say they are selling at a loss.
Greece's olive oil harvest is set to grow by close to a third this season, but the extra volume is pushing producer prices down faster than growers can absorb. The country's National Interprofessional Organisation of Olive Oil puts 2026/27 output at around 300,000 tonnes, against 232,000 tonnes in 2025/26, according to European Commission figures. One Italian brokerage estimates a more cautious 280,000 tonnes.
Regional forecasts diverge. One trade estimate puts Crete's crop at roughly double last year's 40,000 tonnes. A separate estimate splits the gain between the Peloponnese and Crete, with 100,000 tonnes expected from each. In the Trifylia zone, the main production area for PDO Kalamata oil, one specialist expects around 28,000 tonnes, calling it one of the best crops in recent years.
None of the figures are final. Greece's olive harvest runs into December and January, and both the Interprofessional Organisation and independent brokers describe their numbers as projections rather than results.
Profitability deteriorates sharply once prices drop below €5 a litre.
A crop up, a price down
The extra supply is already showing up at the mill gate. In Crete, the producer price for extra virgin olive oil has fallen below €4.00 a kilo, hovering around €3.80, according to Argophilia's reporting. Carryover stock from the thinner 2025/26 season is selling for even less, between €3.20 and €3.60 a kilo, with what one report describes as no buying interest at those levels.
Producers say the maths stops working well before prices reach zero. Profitability deteriorates sharply once prices drop below €5 a litre, growers told Olive Oil Times, once harvesting labour, fertiliser, irrigation and energy costs are counted. A crop that looks like a recovery on paper can still leave a grower short at the till.
A wider Mediterranean glut
Greece is not alone. Morocco's own bumper harvest is forecast to halve local oil prices this season, and Mediterranean-wide output has been rising after Greek growers absorbed a weak 2025/26 season that saw prices fall by half as that harvest began. A bigger regional crop tends to pull prices down across borders, since buyers can shop around.
For now, Greek producers are left watching two numbers move in opposite directions: a harvest forecast climbing toward 300,000 tonnes, and a price per kilo that keeps falling under it. Which one wins out won't be clear until the last olives are pressed.
