Italy's olive oil stocks surge as new harvest floods in

Italy's olive oil stocks jump 46.7% to 195,044 tonnes just as Spain and Greece begin pressing a noticeably bigger 2026/27 crop, pointing to softer prices across the Mediterranean this winter.

The Italian figure covers 30 September 2026, the last day of the 2025/26 campaign, according to trade data compiled by Wikifarmer. Italian extra virgin was trading at around €4.40/kg on 9 October.

Spain's farm ministry put its first estimate for the new 2026/27 campaign at 1,602,596 tonnes on 1 October, 23% above the previous season. Extra virgin origin prices sat near €3.20/kg in the first week of October, and farm unions have asked the government to make storage at mills mandatory to steady the market.

A bumper harvest and a full warehouse rarely mean cheaper oil for long — but this winter, for once, they might.

Greece's early-harvest extra virgin opened higher, at €5.95/kg from the Agioi Apostoloi cooperative in Laconia, before two more Laconian cooperatives sold new-crop oil at €4.60/kg. Old-crop Greek oil traded between €3.10 and €3.60/kg on 9 October.

A bigger crop meets record stock

Field reports across the three countries describe healthy trees and heavy fruit loads this autumn. The main risk is heat: Spain, southern Italy and Greece all recorded extended spells above 35°C in July and August, conditions that can shrink fruit size and cut oil content even where trees look strong.

Competition from outside the EU adds further pressure. Brussels confirmed in March that it would not offer Tunisia additional trade concessions on olive oil, leaving Mediterranean producers to compete mainly among themselves for buyers.

What it comes down to

For cooks, the practical effect is simple: this year's new-season oil, the green, peppery olio nuovo prized from Tuscany to Jaén, should be more widely available this winter and, barring a sharp reversal, not markedly pricier than last year's — a contrast with the 29% jump Andalucia itself forecast for the same campaign. It is also the oil behind the simple, oil-forward dishes that define cooking in AMUSE's Naples dining guide.

Full 2026/27 volumes will not be confirmed until pressing finishes across all three countries in the coming months.