Bacalhau tops €21.82 a kilo as Portugal heads into Christmas
Weekly tracking from consumer group DECO PROteste puts salt cod 36% above last year, as Norway and Russia cut the Barents Sea cod quota to its lowest level since 1991.
Bacalhau graúdo, the large salt cod Portuguese households buy for Christmas, cost €21.82 a kilo in the week of 21-28 October, according to consumer group DECO PROteste. That is 36% more than the same week last year, and 106% above the price when the organisation began tracking it in January 2022.
It is the sharpest bacalhau price Portugal has recorded since the weekly count began.
DECO PROteste publishes a weekly basket of 63 essential food products. That basket cost €253.55 in the same week, down €0.44 on the week before but up €11.72, or 4.85%, since the start of 2026. Bacalhau is the single item moving fastest within it.
Less fish landed in the Barents Sea this year is already showing up on Portuguese scales before a single consoada table is set.
The price rise tracks back to the Barents Sea, where most of the cod sold in Portugal is caught before being salted and dried, mainly in Norway. Norway and Russia, which jointly manage the stock, agreed a 2026 quota of 285,000 tonnes for Northeast Arctic cod, a 16% cut on 2025 and the lowest since 1991, according to SeafoodSource and Baird Maritime.
Why the Barents Sea quota fell
Three decades ago, the same fishery supported catches of close to one million tonnes a year. Norway's share of the 2026 quota is 139,827 tonnes, with the rest split between Russia and third countries under the existing allocation formula.
Norway's fisheries minister framed the cut as necessary to let the stock rebuild rather than as a response to short-term market conditions. Scientific advice came from a joint Norwegian-Russian working group, with Russia's VNIRO institute initially pushing for a higher ceiling of 315,033 tonnes before the two sides settled on the lower figure.
Portuguese reporting on the retail side, including an Echo Boomer analysis published on 24 October, put the domestic cod price rise at 25% year-on-year and said a medium fish of 2.5 to 3 kg now sells for €65 to €70. The figures vary by source and basket, but all point the same way: less fish being landed, and shoppers paying more for it.
Early buying becomes the advice
Christmas remains Portugal's single biggest occasion for bacalhau, the same fish behind the country's pastéis de bacalhau recipe, accounting for roughly 30% of annual sales according to the industry's own estimates in past seasons. DECO PROteste's own analysis of recent years found that households who bought around ten weeks before Christmas saved an average of 8.7% compared with buying in Christmas Eve week itself, making late September and early October the cheaper window — one that has already closed for this year.
Supermarkets have not announced coordinated price freezes on bacalhau, unlike some moves seen around other staples this year. With the Barents Sea quota set for 2026 and unlikely to shift before the new year, traders expect the current price level, or something close to it, to hold through the consoada.
