Olive oil prices hit a four-year low in Spain
A 29% larger Spanish harvest pushes EU extra virgin prices back to 2022 levels, while Italy's price premium over Spain shrinks to a fraction of what it was.
Olive oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2022 across the EU, as Spain's 2026/27 harvest comes in 29% larger than last season's.
Spain's first official estimate, published by the agriculture ministry on 1 October, puts the crop at 1.6 million tonnes, close to the record levels last seen in 2021/22. Analysts at Areté, cited by Il Sole 24 Ore, say EU extra virgin prices are back at their lowest since 2022, after two drought-shortened seasons pushed them to record highs.
Italy's price premium nearly disappears
A bigger Spanish harvest did in five months what two years of drought prices could not: it brought buyers back.
Italian extra virgin prices have fallen 47% over the past year. The premium Italian oil commands over the EU average has shrunk from more than €5,300 a tonne in June 2024 to just over €900 a tonne in September 2026, as Spanish supply returns to the market and Italian buyers restock after running down reserves.
Spanish extra virgin averaged €3.24 a kilo in the week of 19 October, down 23.5% on the same week last year; Italy's national average was €4.78 a kilo, down 47.8%. Italy ended its 2025/26 season on 30 September with 195,044 tonnes in stock, 46.7% more than a year earlier.
A market still waiting on the weather
Areté attributes the fall mainly to restocking after two seasons of drought-driven shortage in Spain, alongside forecast production declines this year in Italy and Tunisia. Spanish producers, with prices now close to their production costs, have been reluctant sellers even as volumes recover.
The swing follows a similar reversal in another Mediterranean staple: Mexican avocado export prices collapsed 63% this year on an oversupplied market, a pattern olive growers are now watching for their own crop. Weather over the coming weeks remains the main variable for how far Spain's 2026/27 yield climbs from here.
Lower prices could do what high ones could not: pull consumption back toward pre-drought levels, even as Alba's white truffle season runs at the same time, a reminder that not every autumn product is getting cheaper.
